Key Numbers
| Indicator | 2024 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Issuances | ~290 MtCO2e | ~305 MtCO2e | -5% |
| Total Retirements | 182 MtCO2e | ~158 MtCO2e | +15% |
| Nature-Based VCU (2021 vintage) | USD 3.50 – 5.50 | USD 4.00 – 7.00 | -20% avg |
| Cookstove Credits | USD 6.00 – 8.50 | USD 5.50 – 8.00 | +8% avg |
| Engineered Removals | USD 80 – 150 | USD 90 – 180 | -12% avg |
| REDD+ Share of Issuances | 35% | 40% | -5pp |
Executive Summary
- Total VCM credit issuances dipped ~5% year-on-year to ~290 MtCO2e in 2024. The decline was driven primarily by reduced issuances under REDD+ methodologies.
- Retirements reached a record 182 MtCO2e — approximately 15% above 2023 levels. Compliance retirements (California/Quebec ETS multi-year compliance) nearly tripled, accounting for ~24% of all retirements.
- Nature-based credit prices remained under pressure: 2021 vintage VCUs traded at USD 3.50-5.50. Cookstove credits rose to USD 6.00-8.50, showing relative resilience.
- ICVCM CCP label's first methodology assessments created visible pricing tiers; CCP-labeled credits carry a 15-30% premium over unlabeled equivalents.
- In 2025, ICVCM approved ~38 methodologies for CCP labels, H1 2025 retirements hit 95 million credits (all-time half-year record), and removal credit prices surged (ARR BBB+ rose from USD 14 to USD 24). CORSIA Phase 1 compliance data and SBTi BVCM guidance are the most critical demand-side signals for 2026.
1. Issuance Trends
Registry Breakdown
Verra remained the largest registry in 2024 but its market share continued to erode — Sylvera data shows it declining from 39% in 2023 to ~28% by Q3 2025. Gold Standard expanded its issuance share; ACR (American Carbon Registry) saw notable growth. BioCarbon Standard attracted attention with Latin American REDD+ project growth.
This diversification trend suggests Verra's VM0007 and VM0009 revision delays are triggering a structural shift in registry selection.
Methodology Mix
REDD+ (avoided deforestation) accounted for 35% of total issuances — a notable decline from 45% in 2022. This contraction stems from delayed issuance approvals during Verra's VM0007 and VM0009 methodology revision processes.
Cookstove projects expanded to 18% of issuances (2023: 14%). Gold Standard cookstove programmes in Sub-Saharan Africa posted strong volumes. Renewable energy projects held steady at 22%, though credits in this category face pricing pressure from additionality concerns.
Engineered carbon removal (biochar, direct air capture) represented just 2% of issuances (~5 MtCO2e) but continued to grow in the premium pricing segment.
Vintage Profile
60% of credits issued in 2024 were 2022-2024 vintage. Older vintage (2019 and prior) credits declined to 8% of issuances — buyers show a clear preference for recent vintages.
2. Retirement Analysis
Overview
A total of 182 MtCO2e of carbon credits were retired in 2024, approximately 15% above the ~158 MtCO2e recorded in 2023. Compliance retirements — particularly from the California/Quebec ETS multi-year compliance true-up — nearly tripled, accounting for ~24% of all retirements (up from 9% in 2023). The issuance-retirement gap narrowed: from ~147 MtCO2e in 2023 to ~108 MtCO2e in 2024.
Corporate Buyers
Corporate buyers accounted for ~70% of voluntary retirements. Technology, aviation, and financial services recorded the largest retirement volumes. Companies approaching net-zero commitment target years visibly increased procurement.
Microsoft remained the single largest buyer, retiring ~3.5 MtCO2e in 2024. The company's portfolio continues shifting toward engineered removal credits.
CORSIA Pre-Compliance
Airlines' pre-compliance retirements under the ICAO CORSIA programme reached ~8 MtCO2e in 2024. This volume increased through 2025 as CORSIA Phase 1 gained momentum; total Phase 1 demand is estimated at 102-148 million tons for the 2024-2026 period.
Sectoral Breakdown
Voluntary retirements by sector: technology 22%, aviation 18%, financial services 15%, energy 12%, consumer goods 10%, other 23%. Aviation's share is expected to rise to 25% in 2026 as CORSIA obligations crystallize.
Buyer Behavior: Quality Over Volume
A notable shift in buyer behavior emerged in 2024: corporate procurement teams are prioritizing credit quality metrics over price minimization. Three observable trends:
Vintage preference tightening. Corporate buyers increasingly specify maximum vintage age in procurement RFPs. Five years ago, 10-year-old credits were acceptable. In 2024, most institutional buyers cap acceptable vintage at 3-5 years from issuance. This concentrates demand on 2021-2024 vintages and depresses pricing for older stock.
Co-benefit requirements expanding. Beyond carbon, buyers are specifying SDG alignment, community benefit verification, and biodiversity impact assessments. This trend favors Gold Standard (which requires SDG contribution proof) and CCP-labeled credits. Cookstove and community forestry projects benefit directly.
Portfolio diversification mandates. Sophisticated buyers — particularly financial services firms managing their own net-zero pathways — are diversifying across credit types: a mix of nature-based (volume), cookstove (co-benefits), and engineered removal (permanence). Single-methodology concentration is declining in institutional portfolios.
Supply-Demand Balance: The Narrowing Gap
The most consequential development of 2024 is the narrowing issuance-retirement gap:
| Year | Issuances | Retirements | Gap | Gap as % of Issuances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ~350 MtCO2e | ~160 MtCO2e | ~190 | ~54% |
| 2022 | ~330 MtCO2e | ~155 MtCO2e | ~175 | ~53% |
| 2023 | ~305 MtCO2e | ~158 MtCO2e | ~147 | ~48% |
| 2024 | ~290 MtCO2e | 182 MtCO2e | ~108 | ~37% |
The surplus is shrinking at an accelerating rate. Issuances declined by ~15 MtCO2e in 2024 while retirements jumped by ~24 MtCO2e. If these trends continue — and both REDD+ methodology tightening (supply constraint) and CORSIA Phase 1 activation (demand expansion) suggest they will — the VCM could approach supply-demand balance within 2-3 years.
Total outstanding unretired credits across major independent crediting mechanisms stood at approximately 1 billion tCO2e, with over two-thirds from pre-2022 vintages. The composition of this surplus — dominated by older vintages and methodology categories now under ICVCM scrutiny — means much of it may never be retired at meaningful prices.
The implication for pricing is directional: a market moving from structural surplus toward balance supports higher prices, particularly for high-integrity credit categories.
Regional Issuance Patterns
Geographic distribution of 2024 issuances reveals continued concentration:
| Region | Share of Issuances | YoY Change | Dominant Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific | 32% | +2pp | Renewable energy, cookstoves |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 24% | +3pp | Cookstoves, forestry |
| Latin America | 22% | -4pp | REDD+, ARR |
| North America | 12% | +1pp | Engineered removal, IFM |
| Other | 10% | -2pp | Mixed |
The shift from Latin America (REDD+ contraction) toward Sub-Saharan Africa (cookstove expansion) is the most significant geographic rebalancing of the year. Africa-origin credits increasingly carry co-benefit premiums that Latin American REDD+ credits do not command.
3. Pricing
Nature-Based Credits
2021-vintage nature-based VCUs traded in the USD 3.50-5.50 range throughout 2024, down from USD 4.00-7.00 in 2023. Key price pressures: oversupply, additionality debates, and REDD+ methodology uncertainty.
REDD+ credits concentrated in the lower segment (USD 3.50-4.50). Afforestation/reforestation (ARR) credits priced at USD 5.00-8.00, occupying the upper end of the nature-based category.
Cookstove Credits
Cookstove credits traded at USD 6.00-8.50 in 2024 — a clear premium over nature-based credits. Gold Standard cookstove credits carried a 15-25% premium over Verra equivalents. The premium reflects stronger sustainable development co-benefits and more robust additionality evidence.
Engineered Removals
Biochar credits priced at USD 80-120; direct air capture (DAC) credits at USD 120-150. This segment retreated slightly from the 2023 range of USD 90-180 as supply increased and some buyers showed price sensitivity.
The price differential between removal and avoidance/reduction credits remains above 20x. This gap is structurally supported by SBTi's requirement for removal credits in net-zero targets.
Gold Standard Premium
Gold Standard credits maintained an average 15-25% premium over equivalent Verra credits, stable versus 2023. Drivers: stricter additionality requirements, SDG verification, and perceived quality from lower volumes.
4. Registry & Integrity Developments
ICVCM CCP Label
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) completed its first CCP (Core Carbon Principles) methodology assessments in H2 2024. Approximately 65% of the ~10 methodologies assessed received CCP labels. CCP-labeled credit supply corresponds to ~30-40% of annual issuances.
CCP-labeled credits showed a 15-30% price premium over unlabeled equivalents. This tiering signals the early formation of two pricing segments: "high integrity" and "standard."
Verra Methodology Revisions
Verra conducted comprehensive revision processes for VM0007 (REDD+) and VM0015 (avoided deforestation) in 2024. These revisions slowed issuance approvals and directly contributed to the contraction in REDD+ supply.
Verra also implemented VCS Standard v4.6 in September 2024, tightening baseline-setting and monitoring requirements.
Market Infrastructure
Registry transparency continued to improve. Verra's registry API expanded in 2024, facilitating programmatic access to issuance and retirement data. Gold Standard is developing a similar API.
5. 2025 Developments and 2026 Outlook
What Happened in 2025
2025 saw a pronounced acceleration in VCM activity. H1 2025 retirements reached 95 million credits — the highest half-year on record; YTD Q3 2025 retirements hit 128 million credits. ICVCM assessed 147 methodologies in total, approving ~38 for CCP labels while 22 did not meet criteria. Roughly 40% of historical supply came from rejected methodologies — a finding that triggered a >40% decline in renewable energy credit listings. Conversely, CCP-approved landfill gas credits saw +300% transaction growth.
On pricing, the most notable development was the sharp rally in removal credits: high-quality ARR (BBB+) credits rose from USD 14 in January 2025 to USD 24 by September. The removal-versus-reduction premium widened to 381% in 2024 (up from 245% in 2023). Vintage premium surged to 217% (up from 53% in 2023). Verra's market share of new issuances declined to ~28% (from 39% two years prior); ACR became the dominant quarterly registry in Q2 2025 at 33%, and BioCarbon Standard hit a record 21.2% share.
CORSIA Phase 1
CORSIA Phase 1 (2024-2026) demand is estimated at 102-148 million tons. IATA's fixed-price offering stood at USD 21.70/tCO2e in early 2025. Airlines' 2025 offsetting obligations will finalize in 2026, providing meaningful price support in the CORSIA-eligible credit segment.
SBTi BVCM Guidance
SBTi's Beyond Value Chain Mitigation (BVCM) guidance clarifies the framework for corporate use of carbon credits outside the value chain. Finalization of the guidance in 2026 is a significant demand catalyst.
Net-Zero Commitment Timelines
Corporate buyers approaching 2030 interim targets face pressure to increase retirement volumes in 2026-2028. European-headquartered financial institutions and technology companies are expected to accelerate procurement.
Price Outlook
2025 pricing trends confirmed the durability of quality-based tiering. High-integrity removal credits will continue to command premiums in 2026. Nature-based credits may firm to the USD 5.00-7.00 range — supported by expanding CCP-labeled supply and CORSIA demand activation. Cookstove credits could target USD 8.00-11.00. Engineered removal prices may continue to rise as demand outpaces new supply.
Signals / What to Watch
- CORSIA Phase 1 compliance data (mid-2026): Actual airline 2025 offsetting volumes are the most critical near-term demand signal for the VCM.
- ICVCM ongoing assessments: 51 of 147 methodologies remain under assessment. Results will reshape the market's quality composition.
- Verra market share trajectory: Verra's share fell from 39% to 28% over two years; the rise of ACR and BioCarbon Standard warrants monitoring.
- SBTi BVCM final guidance: Will clarify the corporate credit-use framework, setting demand-side direction.
- EU Green Claims Directive: European regulation targeting "carbon neutral" claims could suppress demand for low-quality credits.
- Removal credit price dynamics: ARR BBB+ reached USD 24; whether this rally sustains through 2026 is critical.
- Unretired stock composition: The ~1 billion tCO2e unretired credit pool is >2/3 pre-2022 vintage — quality pressure is mounting.
Sources: Verra Registry data (January 2026), Gold Standard Impact Registry (January 2026), Ecosystem Marketplace State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2025, Sylvera Q2/Q3 2025 Reports, World Bank State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025, ICVCM CCP Assessment Reports.