Nature-Based VCU Vintage and Quality Spreads at Record Levels: Removal Premium Hits 381%

Market Snapshot

Vintage and Quality Spreads at Record Levels

Pricing axes in the nature-based voluntary carbon market diverged dramatically through 2024-2025. The premium for the last five years of vintage over older vintages reached 217% in 2024 — a fourfold jump from 53% in 2023. The removal-versus-reduction premium climbed to 381% (2023: 245%).

The most striking illustration of this divergence is the price trajectory of high-quality ARR (afforestation/reforestation/removal) credits: BBB+ rated ARR stood at USD 14/tCO2e in January 2025 and reached USD 24/tCO2e by September 2025 — a 71% increase in nine months. Forward ARR quotes have exceeded USD 50. Meanwhile, REDD+ averaged USD 2.70/ton. The market is pricing the question of "what kind of credit" with increasing sharpness.

Exchange and OTC Price Tiers

According to the World Bank 2025 report (April data), nature-based removal credits trade at ~USD 15.50/tCO2e on exchanges, while avoided deforestation credits sit at USD 5.30/tCO2e — a nearly 3x gap.

Ecosystem Marketplace data sharpens the rating-based spread further: A-AAA rated credits average USD 14.80/ton while CCC-B rated credits average USD 3.50/ton. The high-to-low quality ratio is 4.2x — evidence that the voluntary carbon market no longer operates on a "one tonne equals one tonne" basis.

ICVCM CCP Assessments Are Reshaping the Market

As of late 2025, ICVCM has assessed 147 methodologies: ~38 received CCP approval, 22 were found non-compliant, and 51 remain under assessment. The market impact of CCP labeling is concrete and asymmetric: credits under CCP-approved methodologies have seen clear increases in transaction volume and price — for example, landfill gas credits saw a 300% increase in transaction volume and a 35% price increase from H1 to H2 2024 following CCP approval.

Conversely, the impact of ICVCM rejection is equally striking: renewable energy credit issuances declined more than 40%. Approximately 40% of historical supply comes from ICVCM-rejected methodologies — meaning a significant portion of the ~1 billion tCO2e unretired pool has experienced structural value erosion.

Registry Market Shares Are Shifting

Verra's long-standing market dominance is eroding. As of Q3 2025, Verra's share of new issuances dropped to 28.1% — a notable decline from 39.2% two years ago. BioCarbon Standard reached a record 21.2%. ACR became the largest registry on a quarterly basis in Q2 2025 at 33%. Gold Standard accounted for 25% of Q2 2025 issuances.

This distribution signals a transition from a market concentrated around a single registry to a new era defined by multi-standard competition.

CORSIA Eligibility Is Shaping Demand Dynamics

Under CORSIA Phase 1 (2024-2026), airlines may only use post-2016 vintage credits. In practice, buyer preference is far narrower: airlines and their advisors overwhelmingly favor post-2021 vintages for CORSIA-eligible portfolios. IATA's fixed-price offering stood at USD 21.70/tCO2e in early 2025 — establishing a benchmark for corporate buyers.

33.3% of Q3 2025 issuances were CORSIA-eligible — a sign that CORSIA demand is beginning to shape the supply side as well. The Phase 1 demand estimate is 102-148 million tonnes (2024-2026 cumulative).

SBTi's Beyond Value Chain Mitigation (BVCM) guidance reinforces the preference for recent vintage and removal credits. SBTi recommends that credits used under BVCM be "as recent as practicable."

Pricing Table by Segment and Quality

ARR and mangrove projects continue to carry a distinct premium over REDD+. The carbon removal component and biodiversity co-benefits structurally support this premium — the 381% removal-versus-reduction premium is the numerical expression of this dynamic.

Supply Side: ~1 Billion tCO2e Unretired Pool

According to World Bank 2025 data, the unretired credit pool has reached ~1 billion tCO2e, with more than two-thirds consisting of pre-2022 vintages. 2024 issuances came in at ~290 million credits, a ~5% year-on-year decline, yet the increase in retirement demand (2024: 182 million tonnes; H1 2025: 95 million — the highest half-year ever) is not alleviating pressure on the legacy stock.

Older vintages are becoming structurally illiquid: ICVCM rejection, low ratings, and CORSIA ineligibility are narrowing the demand pool for these credits. By contrast, 2023-2024 vintages exhibit much faster turnover.

Spread Analysis: Quantifying the Divergence

The spread data from Ecosystem Marketplace captures the scale of the divergence:

Three conclusions from this data:

First, the curve is steepening, not flattening. Vintage premiums quadrupled from 53% to 217% in a single year. This is structural, not cyclical — driven by CCP labeling, CORSIA vintage cutoffs, and SBTi BVCM guidance.

Second, removal premiums are widening faster than vintage premiums. The 381% removal-vs-reduction premium (up from 245%) reflects growing regulatory and corporate demand for carbon removal credits over avoidance credits. ARR's trajectory from USD 14 to USD 24 in nine months exemplifies this trend.

Third, the legacy stock overhang is massive. With ~1 billion tCO2e unretired and >2/3 pre-2022 vintage, the market faces a structural inventory problem. ICVCM rejection of ~40% of historical methodologies accelerates the devaluation of this stock. Any large-scale liquidation could create significant downward pressure on old-vintage, low-quality credit prices.

Trading Implications

For market participants, the vintage and quality stratification creates specific positioning opportunities:

Go long the new-vintage removal / short the old-vintage avoidance spread. The 381% removal premium and 217% vintage premium both have room to widen further as ICVCM completes its remaining 51 methodology assessments and CORSIA Phase 1 demand materializes.

ARR vs REDD+ basis trade. ARR's price trajectory (USD 14 to USD 24 in nine months, with forwards above USD 50) suggests the removal premium has strong momentum. For portfolios seeking long-term value, ARR credits may offer better risk-adjusted returns than REDD+ given regulatory tailwinds.

Beware the buffer stock overhang. The ~1 billion tCO2e unretired pool — mostly pre-2022 vintage, with ~40% from ICVCM-rejected methodologies — represents concentrated selling risk. A large corporate portfolio restructuring could trigger localized selloffs in old vintages.

Monitor registry competition. Verra's declining market share (28.1%) and ACR's emergence (33% in Q2 2025) may shift which registries command pricing premiums. Credits from emerging registries like BioCarbon Standard (21.2% record share) may carry different risk-return profiles.

Signals / What to Watch

• ICVCM CCP assessment pipeline: 51 methodologies remain under assessment. Which REDD+ methodologies receive CCP labels will directly affect vintage-based spreads and could shift pricing for a significant portion of the outstanding pool.
• CORSIA Phase 1 demand realization: The 102-148 million tonne demand estimate will firm up by end of 2026. The vintage and registry distribution of retirement volumes will clarify supply-demand dynamics.
• ~1 billion tCO2e unretired pool: The liquidation price of this legacy stock will set the market floor. Credits from ICVCM-rejected methodologies face particular downside risk.
• ARR forward price signal: Is the USD 50+ forward level sustainable, or will it compress as supply increases? Track issuance volumes closely.
• Registry competition: Verra's decline to 28% and ACR's 33% quarterly leadership may reshape standard preference and credit quality perceptions.
• Article 6 cross-pollination: ~100 bilateral agreements (as of 2025) and Switzerland's 29 CHF/tCO2e average price are increasing the permeability between voluntary and sovereign carbon markets.

Sources: World Bank State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025, Ecosystem Marketplace SOVCM 2025, Sylvera Q2/Q3 2025 Market Reports, ICVCM CCP Assessment Framework, CBL Markets nature-based VCU pricing data.